<![CDATA[danieldrezner.com :: Daniel W. Drezner :: It’s getting uncomfortable for Syria:
A “muscular”, big-stick policy requires that you have a credible big stick to wield. Do the neocons and the Radical Right really think that they can fight wars in Iraq, Syria, Iran, and North Korea simultaneously?
Cranky
posted by: Cranky Observer on 02.16.05 at 09:46 AM [permalink]Mr. Observer, the entire point of this “Syria roundup” is to express the idea that a sort of domino effect is taking place in the Middle East due to Iraq. Certain oppressed populations seem to be growing backbones.
Therefore, it seems that the “neocons and the Radical Right” believe that they will not have to fight a war in Syria or Iran (or North Korea, I suspect, for entirely different reasons).
So in answer to your question, No.
This passage is from the comments on Drezner’s posting about the situation in Syria. It’s a reasonable question and a response built on a profoundly optimistic assumption that the war is already over. We’ve heard the “Domino Theory” before, when it was supposed to be rolling out from the Soviet Union. What we learned about the Soviet Union was that any pushing of dominoes beyond a very limited sphere of influence was costly, disastrous and, ultimately, the source of its fiscal and political implosion. So, why, I ask, use that model to justify our policy in Iraq?
It begs credibility, as any additional war while we are engaged in Iraq would force us into a desperate situation where redeployment of troops would put our men and women left in Iraq in extreme danger, could lead to the dissolution of the scant progress in Iraq we’ve already paid for in blood and too much money, while putting the redeployed troops in the new theatre at a severe disadvantage compared to the overwhelming numbers they enjoyed in invading Iraq.
So, the neocons are playing a dangerous game pushing hard on all these fronts, because they are giving tells to their bluff all over and that’s going to mean someone will try to call it. Then, there’s a whole world of questions about the direction foreign policy is going that will jolt this country awake.]]>